Empty Pews or a Resurrection? The Surprising Future of Christianity in America

Empty Pews or a Resurrection? The Surprising Future of Christianity in America

The cross and the empty tomb. Two symbols that bookend the Easter story—one of execution, the other of resurrection. For millions of American Christians, that message of finding new life in unforeseen places is more than a seasonal refrain. It might just describe the future of their faith in this country.

For years, the narrative has been one of decline. Church leaders and pundits have warned that Christianity in America is dying, destined to follow Western Europe into a secularized sunset of soaring cathedrals with empty pews and shuttered sanctuaries turned into skate parks and nightclubs. One theologian even suggested Christianity as a cultural norm is “probably gone for good—or at least for the next 100 years.”

But when CNN asked some of the nations top religion scholars and historians about the future of Christianity in the US, they offered a different message. The American church, they say, is poised to find new life. The reason? Waves of Christians are migrating to the US. And the biggest challenge isnt declining numbers—its whether the church can adapt to this migration.

A History of Misguided Predictions

If you think the death of American Christianity is a sure bet, historian Joseph P. Slaughter has a word of caution: people have been predicting it for over two centuries, and it hasnt happened yet.

He points to Thomas Jefferson, who in the 1820s predicted Christianity would be replaced by a more enlightened religion that rejected Jesus divinity and miracles. Instead, Jeffersons prophecy was followed by a series of revivals, including the Second Great Awakening, which swept across America and reasserted Christianity as a dominant force in American life.

“Id never bet against American Christianity—particularly evangelicalism,” Slaughter says, “and its ability to adapt and remain a significant shaper of American society.”

The Nightmare Scenario

If you only look at the numbers, Slaughters optimism might seem misguided. About 64% of Americans call themselves Christian today. That sounds like a lot, but 50 years ago it was 90%, according to a 2020 Pew Research Center study. That same survey suggested the Christian majority in the US may disappear by 2070. The Covid-19 pandemic also hurt the church; attendance has rebounded but remains slightly below pre-pandemic levels. A 2021 Gallup poll found church membership in the US had fallen below 50% for the first time.

A cascade of headlines has stained the churchs reputation: sex abuse scandals in the Roman Catholic Church and the Southern Baptist Convention; the spread of White Christian nationalism; and the perception that the church oppresses marginalized groups such as LGBTQ people.

Church leaders also fret about the rise of “nones”—people who describe themselves as atheists, agnostics, or “nothing in particular.” About 30% of Americans now claim that label. Tina Wray, a professor of religious and theological studies at Salve Regina University, says the ascent of nones will transform the countrys religious and political landscape.

“The interest of the nones will soon outweigh those of the religious right in just a matter of years,” Wray says. “Nones are going to vote as a bloc and theyre going to be pretty powerful. White evangelicals will eventually be eclipsed by the unaffiliated.”

Wray points to the Republic of Ireland, once an overwhelmingly Catholic country where the church was so powerful that divorce wasnt legally available until 1995. On a recent trip, she discovered many citizens have left the religion. Churches are being closed and turned into apartment buildings.

“People who went to mass every day stopped going,” she says. “Theres this cultural Catholic identity, but as far as practicing their faith, its just disappearing. So within a generation, thats all it took. Its just shocking.”

The Global South Connection

Most of the scholars CNN spoke to said the American church may find salvation in another demographic trend: the booming of Christianity in the “Global South”—Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The worlds largest megachurch isnt in the US; its in South Korea. The Yoido Full Gospel Church has a weekly attendance of about 600,000 members.

Perry Hamalis, a religion professor at North Central College in Illinois, spent time as a Fulbright Scholar in South Korea. He says the church there isnt perceived as an instrument of oppression but of liberation. When South Korea was colonized by Japan in the early 20th century, the church aligned with Koreans to protest.

“Christianity was looked at not as a religion of empire and of the colonizers, but as the religion of the anti-colonial movement and of pro-democracy,” Hamalis says.

The US has more immigrants than any other country. People from Latin America and Asia now make up the overwhelming majority of immigrants, and many bring their religio us fervor with them. This migration is part of whats called the “Browning of America,” a demographic shift expected to make White people the minority by 2045.

Those who predict the church in America will collapse often overlook how Global South Christians will revitalize the religious landscape, scholars say. Tish Harrison Warren, a New York Times columnist, recently pointed out that Latino evangelicals are now the fastest-growing group of evangelicals in the US.

“We cannot assume that America will become more secular so long as the future of America is less white,” Warren wrote.

But this influx collides with another trend: a burgeoning White Christian nationalist movement that insists, incorrectly, that the US was founded as a White, Christian nation. It is hostile to non-White immigrants.

Some churches may discover that Jesus command to welcome the stranger collides with their definition of patriotism, Hamalis says.

“Many congregations dont realize how much of their Christian identity is wrapped up with a kind of nationalist narrative,” he says. “Theres nothing wrong with loving ones country, but from a Christian perspective that ought to always be secondary to the mission of building the body of Christ and witnessing to the Gospel in the world.”

Influence Beyond Numbers

Declining church membership doesnt automatically translate into declining influence. Consider recent landmark events. White evangelicals played a critical role in getting former President Trump elected. Conservative Christian groups helped pass state laws limiting LGBTQ rights. And the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade was a massive victory for many conservative Christians. Atheism remains a taboo in American politics; voters still prefer candidates who profess or evoke Christian beliefs.

“Christianity still holds a lot of capital in this country,” says Lee M. Jefferson, an associate professor of religion at Centre College in Kentucky. “There has always been a popular notion that a religious communitys strength or influence is connected to numbers and attendance. Even if there is ample space in cathedrals, Christianity will still hold some strong relevance in different landscapes in the US.”

Even the rise of the nones isnt as much of a threat as initial reports suggest. A growing number of Americans may no longer identify as Christian, but many still care about spirituality, says Hans Gustafson, author of “Everyday Wisdom: Interreligious Studies for a Pluralistic World.”

“Just because more Americans are disaffiliating with institutionalized religion—most notably Christian traditions—this does not always mean that people are becoming less religious,” says Gustafson, director of the Jay Phillips Center for Interreligious Studies at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. “Many still practice spirituality: prayer, meditation… and sometimes even regularly attend religious houses of worship.”

A 2018 Pew Research Center study found that nones in the US are “much more likely” to pray and believe in God than their European counterparts. “In fact, by some of these standard measures of religious commitment, American nones are as religious as—or even more religious than—Christians in several European countries, including France, Germany and the UK,” wrote Neha Sahgal, a vice president of research at Pew.

The Easter Message as a Warning and a Hope

Despite the optimism of many scholars, the future of Christianity in America remains uncertain. Poll numbers about decline cant be ignored, along with something more intangible: the frailties of human nature. What if the US enters another xenophobic period and limits migration from non-White Christians? What if progressive Christians prove unwilling to align with non-White immigrants who tend to be more conservative on issues of sexuality and gender? And what if some Christians still cling to the belief that America is supposed to be a White Christian nation, even if that assumption causes them to close their church doors to non-White immigrants who could be their salvation?

If that happens, an Easter morning symbol in American churches wont just be an empty tomb, but empty pews.

But Hamalis, the religion professor who saw Christianity boom in South Korea, says Christians who fear that future can take solace in the Easter message.

“From a Christian perspective, theres nothing to fear because even death has been conquered,” Hamalis says. “When we are liberated from that fear, we can embrace the person whos different from us, who speaks a different language or comes from a different culture. We can put ourselves out there in a way that we cant if were just afraid.”

He and other scholars envision a vibrant future for Christianity in the US thats shared by Warren: “The future of American Christianity is neither white evangelicalism nor white progressivism,” she wrote. “The future of American Christianity now appears to be a multiethnic community that is largely led by immigrants or the children of immigrants.”

If the American church can embrace this future and reverse its shrinking membership, it will have experienced its own resurrection. The question is whether it will roll away the stone—or keep it firmly in place.